Baring Russia's Bear

This is insightful on many levels, "Russian troops start dismantling Georgia posts." (WaPo)

"The moves come as Russia faced a Friday deadline for pulling back its troops under the terms of a deal brokered by French President Nicolas Sarkozy on behalf of the European Union."

That's right, the United States played no active role in brokering a resolution to this potential time bomb.... Sarkozy and the EU did the heavy lifting while the Bush administration issued largely ignored pronouncements of no usefulness. And the EU is monitoring what so far is Russia's compliance.

This EU-brokered agreement obliges Russia to pull it's military out of what it calls a security zone roughly four-miles deep inside Georgia south of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, although it allows Russia to set up checkpoints in the zones.

"Russia recognized the independence of both regions after the fighting, a move denounced by Georgia and the West; so far, only Nicaragua and the Hamas government in Gaza have followed suit with recognition."

So where are Russia's friends.... China, Venezuela, Iran? Hmmmm. Could it be because a moth-eaten bear.... as evidenced by it's outdated military equipment deployed in it's conflict with Georgia.... isn't yet a Big Bad Bear despite strongman Vladimir Putin's huffing and growling?

Today Murray Feshback explains in "Behind the Bluster, Russia is Collapsing." (WaPo)

"Predictions that Russia will again become powerful, rich and influential ignore some simply devastating problems at home that block any march to power. Sure, Russia's army could take tiny Georgia. But Putin's military is still in tatters, armed with rusting weaponry and staffed with indifferent recruits. Meanwhile, a declining population is robbing the military of a new generation of soldiers. Russia's economy is almost totally dependent on the price of oil. And, worst of all, it's facing a public health crisis that verges on the catastrophic"

As Putin continues to focus the revenues of Russia's oil industry cash-cow on boosting defense spending, (with a plan to fully re-arm it's military to state-of-the-art at a cost of $200 billion) it comes at the expense of Russia's most basic resource.... the health and well-being of it's people.

Three times as many Russians die from heart-related illnesses as do Americans or Europeans per 100,000 people; TB deaths are triple the World Health Organization's definition of an epidemic... about 24,000 in 2007 for 142 million people as compared to 650 in the U.S. with a population of 303 million; diagnosed HIV/AIDS infections are skyrocketing to about 1 million people with an estimated increase of 25 percent more new cases in 2008. The birth rate has been declining for more than a decade and the health of Russia's newborns is quite poor with 70 percent experiencing complications at birth.

Is Russia addressing these tragic and nationally debilitating health issues? No.

For example, "according to Gennady Onishchenko, the country's chief public health physician, only 9 percent of Russian TB hospitals meet current hygienic standards, 21 percent lack either hot or cold running water, 11 percent lack a sewer system, and 20 percent have a shortage of TB drugs."

So do these devastating national weaknesses defang Russia? As Putin tries to claw his way back to superpower status it would be prudent to remember, there is nothing more dangerous than a wounded, cornered bear.

What's Bush Up To?

Apparently not satisfied with the nation-rending disaster of the war in Iraq, Seymour M. Hersh of The New Yorker now reports that The Decider is "Preparing the Battlefield..... The Bush Administration steps up its secret moves against Iran."

A gutless or ill-informed Democratic Congress approved Bush's request for funding for a major escalation of covert operations in Iran late last year.... at about the same time that the National Intelligence Estimate (released in December) concluded that Iran had halted its work on nuclear weapons in 2003.

The administration didn't want to hear that kind of talk. Bush questioned the N.I.E.'s conclusions, and Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, and GOP presidential nominee Sen. John McCain all bobble-headed into line in his dismissal of the report.

But, evidently having second thoughts about the headlong rush down the hawkish road The Decider wants to travel, Gates and the "Joint Chiefs of Staff are 'pushing back hard' against White House pressure to undertake a military strike against Iran.... 'at least ten senior flag and general officers, including combatant commanders have weighed in on that issue."

And late last year Gates met with the Senate Democratic caucus where he warned of the consequences of a preemptive strike on Iran.... "We'll create generations of jihadists, and our grandchildren will be battling our enemies here in America." Asked if he was speaking for Bush and Vice President Cheney, Gates replied, "Let's just say that I'm here speaking for myself."

Admiral William Fallon, former head of U.S. Central Command in charge of American forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, was outspoken in his reservations about an armed attack on Iran.... which resulted in his resigning under pressure in March.

What about Congress?.... "The Democratic leadership's agreement to commit hundreds of millions of dollars for more secret operations in Iran was remarkable.... 'The oversight process has not kept pace - it's been co-opted' by the Administration.... The process is broken, and this is dangerous stuff we're authorizing.' " according to someone familiar with the process.

How did that happen? "After September 11 the President signed an Executive Order giving the Pentagon license to do things that it had never been able to do before without notifying Congress.... called 'preparing battle space'.... circumventing congressional oversight."

While an overwhelmed America watches these events with alarm and frustration at being led further into the explosive Middle East quicksand by the reckless Bush/Cheney cabal, the no-longer-hibernating Russian bear, and oil-hungry China are seizing the day.

As reported by assistant secretary of defense in the Reagan administration Richard Perle in "Coalition Of the Ineffectual,"..... (WaPo) " 'A successful multilateral coalition' is how Condoleezza Rice described those countries, 'united in confronting Iran,' on which the administration's Iran policy critically depends.

" 'A complete failure' is Barack Obama's description of the Bush administration's Iran policy."

Perle points out that they are both right, but that the "coalition that Rice thinks is a success, and Obama a failure, is, at best, a 'do-nothing decisive' group, with at least half its members - Germany, Russia and China - maneuvering for self-serving advantage in their dealings with the mullahs in Iran."

"Russia continues to assist Iran's nuclear program while selling Iran advanced weapons. China is prowling for oil deals and selling advanced weapons. German businessmen fill the lobbies of Iranian hotels.... the Russians and Chinese have made it clear that they will not support sanctions that are severe enough to exert any real influence."

And what about Iran?.... "Report: Iran to hit Israel if attacked." (WaPo) "The commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guard warned that Tehran would respond to an attack against it by barraging Israel with missiles and controlling a key oil passageway in the Persian Gulf," according to a Tehran newspaper report published Saturday.

Soooo...... what has all of this saber rattling produced? "Oil near $143 on Israel-Iran tensions." (WaPo) "Oil rose more than $3 a barrel on Monday to a new record above $143, propelled by heightened market fears of conflict between Israel and Iran over Tehran's nuclear program.

"A fall in the U.S. dollar to three-week low versus the euro helped boost the market..... oil prices have jumped more than 40 percent this year, extending a six-year rally, in response to Middle East tensions...."

It's one minute until midnight.... do you know where your government is?

One Dictator Checked, One Empowered

Democracy wins in Venezuela while Russia's fate lies with Putin's dirty-gray soul that The Decider gushed over a seeming lifetime ago.

"Venezuelans Deny Chavez Additional Authority"..... as voters yesterday blocked proposed constitutional changes that would have sped the country toward socialism and allowed President Hugo Chavez to stand for reelections indefinitely. A hopeful sign in our dangerous back yard.

At the same time a half a world away, "Pro-Democracy Groups Call Russian Election Unfair"..... as the United Russia party headed by President Vladimir Putin won the parliamentary elections by 64 percent. European observers called the election "the merging of the state and a political party."

An example of the skewed results.... in Chechnya United Russia received 99.36 percent of the vote with a turnout of 99.5 percent. Chechnya is currently led by a Putin strongman, and their elections were not monitored.

Putin's United Russia now has 315 of the 450-member State Duma.... enough to change the constitution to allow Putin to remain in power beyond the current limit of two consecutive terms. Putin opponents called the vote a "disgusting" repeat of Soviet practices, while Putin said he was pleased with the results.

There seems little doubt that the empowered Putin will continue to consolidate his dictatorial powers, while the The Decider and his Russia "expert" the dithering Secretary of State Rice, watch their soulful Russia policy ice over like a Siberian winter.... or a cold war.

Bush's Foreign "Friends"

So grandiose is The Decider's opinion of himself, and his influence on other world leaders, that he has based much of our foreign policy on his so-called personal relationships with those leaders, leaving the good of the people of those nations, and ours, to choke on the effluvia of his egomaniacal "spreading of Democracy" rhetoric.

The Decider's "good friends" like.... Mexico's former president Vincente Fox who described The Decider as the cockiest man he ever met and speaks Spanish like a fourth grader; Russia's president Vladimir Putin who is grabbing Soviet-style power while Bush is gazing into Putin's soul; and Iraq's prime minister Nouri al-Maliki who is firmly lodged in Iran's back pocket while pimping American lives and treasure.

Or, nuclear-armed Pakistan's president Gen. Peverez Musharraf who is ignoring the admonishments of the White House to stop his martial-law-enforced grip on power. These leaders are at the ready for Bush photo-ops, but their actions scream their disdain.

Bush gets no respect, because he's earned no respect.

The dangerous oligarchs lying in wait just beneath the surface of nations.... usually restrained by a commanding president of a strong U.S.... have taken arrogant Bush's measure and judged that as long as they give lip service to The Decider's neoconist worldview crusades they can unleash their dictatorial ambitions without retribution.

The perfect example is Pakistan. Musharraf seized power in a military coup in 1999 with promises of a civilian government. Because The Decider wanted Musharraf's support for his "war on terror," he looked the other way... and slipped Musharraf a mostly unaccounted for nearly $11 billion. Musharraf tested him by repeatedly breaking promises to move toward democracy, forcing his rivals into exile, being vindictive, and intimidating anyone who tried to stand up to him.

Now Bush's dependence on his perceived "relationship" with this man has blown up in his face.... Musharraf has suspended the constitution, is rounding up judges, beating and jailing lawyers and journalists, arresting members of his opposition, and has silenced the media.

Moves that will embolden extremists in The Decider's war on terror like Al Qaeda and the Taliban who are resurgent on Musharraf's northern borders, while fueling anger and mistrust among Pakistani moderates.

Musharraf said his actions were necessary to preserve Pakistan, and compared himself to Abraham Lincoln during our civil war. Please.

The truth of the matter is that after "winning a sham ballot last month, General Musharraf was awaiting a Supreme Court decision on whether his election, while still serving as army chief of staff, was legal.... he asserted military powers after getting word that the court would rule against him." (New York Times)

It's plain....Musharraf is preserving his power.... although he did throw the bone of a "promised" election in January. Will there be another "emergency" to stay that election? Elections held by a tyrannical government have but one outcome.... either no election, or the "election" of the tyrant.

Just as we have watched world leaders gutting their sham democracies while seizing unlimited state powers, we have also watched The Decider, by virtue of presidential directives and an acquiescent attorney general and lawmakers, vastly expanding the powers of his office.

Is Pakistan's perilous state just a chilling preview of November 2009?

The answer may lie in whether or not The Decider takes strong measures to restrain Musharraf by plugging his U.S. piggy bank, protecting the popular former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, and insisting on open elections.... a real foreign policy effort, not a nod-and-a-wink accommodation for his "friend."

Could it be that the most dangerous leader is the one elected to office for the national common good, who instead uses it to undermine individual rights while pursuing his ego-directed globalist ideology.

Putin Baits the West

Bass fishing diplomacy has it limits.... actually, our relationship with Russia is much worse after The Decider's yukking-it-up press conference early this month with Russia's President Putin after their Kennebunkport fishing summit to resolve U.S. anti-missile plans for Russia's backyard.

Putin made a show of cooperating with the defense system, offering to place it on Russian soil if Bush abandoned plans for facilities in Poland and the Czech Republic.

When Bush didn't go along with Putin's plan, on Saturday Putin announced that Russia would pull out of the CFE treaty, a landmark pact limiting post-Cold War military strength. "Russia rebuffs NATO talks offer on arms pact." (WaPo)

A hopefully sobered Bush, pushing ahead with his anti-missile plans, met with the Polish President Kaczynski at the White House on Monday.

Great Britain also has serious disagreements with Russia who is refusing to cooperate on a terrorist incident.... just days after London kicked four Russians out of the country, a retaliating "Russia Expels 4 British Diplomats" (WaPo)

Moscow continues to refuse to extradite the Russian former KGB officer, Andrei Lugovoy, who the British accuse of poisoning Alexander Litvinenko.... a fierce critic of Putin.... in London last November using polonium-210.

The case is particularly charged because Litvinenko, who fled from Russia to Britain in 2000 and became a British citizen, suffered a slow and gruesome death. In addition, hundreds of Londoners feared they were exposed when the radioactive substance was found in numerous places causing alarm and panic in the city last November.

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said this week that he could not tolerate "lawlessness" in London and would make "no apologies for the action we have taken."

Hear! Hear! Good show, Brown!

Bush should take note of how grownups deal with an increasingly dangerous Putin.... drop the Bush frat boy buddy-buddy approach.... Putin isn't looking for friends.

Bush's Playground

Guru took Pootie-Poot to the woodshed, and Pootie-Poot promised to stop sticking his tongue out at Dubya.

No, you haven't wandered into a Dr. Seuss children's book.

Welcome to the world of the most powerful leader in the world.... the self-proclaimed "Commander Guy," a.k.a. "The Decider," his Secretary of State, Condi "Guru" Rice., and Russia's President "Pootie-Poot" Putin.

Excuse us George if we don't laugh at your bestowing of childish nicknames in lieu of a real governance.

It was bad enough that you gurgled after your meeting with "Pootie-Poot" in 2002, "I looked the man in the eye. I was able to get a sense of his soul."

Since then, Putin's "soul" has been hard at work suppressing the press and individual freedoms in Russia, and aligning Russia's interests with those of our enemies.

It was even discovered that Russia provided intelligence to Iraq's government on U. S. military movements in the opening days of the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003.

Naughty, naughty Pootie-Poot.

Now we've had to witness Commander Guy dispatching "Guru" Rice to Moscow to deliver her school marm scolding to Pootie-Poot. Putin is kicking sand in our face because he doesn't like the U.S. plans for a missile defense system in his backyard among other things.... and a week ago in Red Square appeared to compare Bush's United States to Hitler's Third Reich.

Now, now Pootie-Poot, it's not nice to call names.

If only we could go back to the fairy tale "Mission Accomplished" days. When Iraq was a glorious victory, and Russia loved the U.S.

In those la-la land days, "Guru" Rice .... a supposed Russian specialist....said, "To see the kind of relationship that Presidents Bush and Putin have developed and to see Russia firmly anchored in the West - that's really a dream of 300 years...."

A dream indeed.

Actually, it's a part of the nightmare scenario inflicted by an inept, unready, uncomprehending, stubborn, good-ol'-boy Commander Guy leading our great nation into the abyss.

And, our clever Bush even has a nickname for the United States of America..... the North American Union.

Will someone please wake me up!

Are You My Friend?

As Yogi would say, it feels like "deja vu all over again"..... "Britain Takes Case Against Iran to U.N."

Yes, following the crooked script for disaster in Iraq, the Brits have asked the U.N. Security Council for action. They want them to "deplore" Tehran's seizure and "detention" of 15 Royal Navy sailors and marines, demanding their immediate release.

This declaration of condemnation is being resisted. The dispute is over whether the Brits were operating in Iraqi or Iranian waters.... Russia and others aren't taking the Brits "proof" that they weren't operating in Iranian waters. Iran offers "proof" that they were.

Iran says the whole thing can be resolved if Britain admits it made a "mistake" and crossed into their waters. They also suggest that without such an admission, they might have to take legal action, suggesting they might put the Brit captives on trial.

Meanwhile, the buzz in Russia and much of Europe is that Bush and Blair are primed for confrontation with Iran. Perhaps coincidentally, today our head of national counterintelligence, Joe Brenner, warns that Moscow is intent on gaining insights into "the upper echelon of U. S. decision-making.... back to Cold War levels in their efforts against the United States."

Makes you wonder if Russia isn't on target about the our military buildup on the Iran border since our own counterintelligence is saying Moscow's intelligence is pretty good, a Cold-War level threat.

All of this saber rattling comes at a time when The Decider can count his international supporters on..... well, I was going to say one finger, but Blair is leaving office this July, and his successor may not be so enamored of Bush's enemy-making colonialism. They've been there, done that.

"Wait," you may say. We have other allies, especially the Saudis in the Middle East.

Think again. The Decider wanted to honor his Saudi friends, so he scheduled a mid-April White House gala for King Abdullah. But, Abdullah suddenly cancelled offering an Emily Post "prior commitment" reason.

Just another warning that the politically-weakened Bush's "friends" are distancing themselves. Jim Hoagland's "Bush's Royal Trouble" reports that "Bush and his senior advisers were not convinced" by the vague scheduling excuse, "especially since it followed Saudi decisions to seek common ground with Iran and the radicals of Hezbollah and Hamas instead of confronting them as part of Rice's proposed 'realignment' of the Middle East into moderates and extremes."

Adding insult to injury, Abdullah gave a warm welcome to Iran's President Ahmadinejad in early March. It was just a few months ago that the Saudis were championing the realignment approach.... now the Saudi's national security adviser regularly visits Tehran and Moscow.

Let's face it, Bush and much of his administration are in way over their heads.... dragging the country into incredibly dangerous waters.

Hostage Fuse Burning

The Stage

In November of 1979, following the overthrow of the Shah, the followers of Iran's new leader, Ayatollah Khomeini, overran the U.S. embassy and took 66 hostages, most of whom were held for 444 days, until January 20, 1981.

In June of 2004 British servicemen were held for two days after apparently straying into the Iranian side of Shatt-al Arab, the river that constitutes the border between Iraq and Iran down to the mouth as it discharges into the Persian Gulf.

So, how serious is the current seizure of 15 Royal Navy crew members? Where on the retaliation meter does and should it fall?

The British sailors and marines were taken after being confronted by six small Iranian vessels in the Shatt-al Arab waterway, accused of entering Iranian waters.

England's prime minister Tony Blair lost much of his luster over Iraq and is retiring from office soon. Now his Navy, once the mightiest in the world, appears impotent on the world stage. He must have an eye on his legacy. What to do?

The Military Might

There are reports that the lone female in the fifteen troops being held will be released soon. In the meantime, Britain is freezing all talks with Iran and the U.S. Navy is staging its largest show of force in the Persian Gulf since the 2003 invasion, war games on steroids.

President Bush is facing his biggest challenge ever from Congress over his conduct of the war in Iraq... he needs a convincing argument that in this dangerous region he needs unfettered war powers.

Last Thursday Iran also started exercises in the Gulf which their state television said "showed their defensive power for protecting the Persian Gulf." A show of force in the strategic waterway through which two-fifths of the world's traded oil is shipped.

But Iran is treading in dangerous waters.

The EU, Egypt and the Saudis have expressed their condemnation of Iran's actions. Washington has long been challenging Tehran's resolve to build atomic bombs, and has not ruled out the use of force if there isn't a diplomatic resolution.

A Russian news outlet reported yesterday that their intelligence sees a U.S. military buildup on the Iran border. "The latest military intelligence data point to heightened U.S. military preparations for both an air and ground operation against Iran," although the Pentagon has probably not yet made a final decision as to when an attack will be launched. They also observed that the U.S. Naval presence in the Gulf has for the first time in the past four years reached the Iraq pre-invasion level.

This current military hostage situation impacting our closest ally and potentially much of the world's oil supply is primed to explode the festering tensions with Iran.

The stage is set, the military might is in place, the fuse is burning.....