Baring Russia's Bear

This is insightful on many levels, "Russian troops start dismantling Georgia posts." (WaPo)

"The moves come as Russia faced a Friday deadline for pulling back its troops under the terms of a deal brokered by French President Nicolas Sarkozy on behalf of the European Union."

That's right, the United States played no active role in brokering a resolution to this potential time bomb.... Sarkozy and the EU did the heavy lifting while the Bush administration issued largely ignored pronouncements of no usefulness. And the EU is monitoring what so far is Russia's compliance.

This EU-brokered agreement obliges Russia to pull it's military out of what it calls a security zone roughly four-miles deep inside Georgia south of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, although it allows Russia to set up checkpoints in the zones.

"Russia recognized the independence of both regions after the fighting, a move denounced by Georgia and the West; so far, only Nicaragua and the Hamas government in Gaza have followed suit with recognition."

So where are Russia's friends.... China, Venezuela, Iran? Hmmmm. Could it be because a moth-eaten bear.... as evidenced by it's outdated military equipment deployed in it's conflict with Georgia.... isn't yet a Big Bad Bear despite strongman Vladimir Putin's huffing and growling?

Today Murray Feshback explains in "Behind the Bluster, Russia is Collapsing." (WaPo)

"Predictions that Russia will again become powerful, rich and influential ignore some simply devastating problems at home that block any march to power. Sure, Russia's army could take tiny Georgia. But Putin's military is still in tatters, armed with rusting weaponry and staffed with indifferent recruits. Meanwhile, a declining population is robbing the military of a new generation of soldiers. Russia's economy is almost totally dependent on the price of oil. And, worst of all, it's facing a public health crisis that verges on the catastrophic"

As Putin continues to focus the revenues of Russia's oil industry cash-cow on boosting defense spending, (with a plan to fully re-arm it's military to state-of-the-art at a cost of $200 billion) it comes at the expense of Russia's most basic resource.... the health and well-being of it's people.

Three times as many Russians die from heart-related illnesses as do Americans or Europeans per 100,000 people; TB deaths are triple the World Health Organization's definition of an epidemic... about 24,000 in 2007 for 142 million people as compared to 650 in the U.S. with a population of 303 million; diagnosed HIV/AIDS infections are skyrocketing to about 1 million people with an estimated increase of 25 percent more new cases in 2008. The birth rate has been declining for more than a decade and the health of Russia's newborns is quite poor with 70 percent experiencing complications at birth.

Is Russia addressing these tragic and nationally debilitating health issues? No.

For example, "according to Gennady Onishchenko, the country's chief public health physician, only 9 percent of Russian TB hospitals meet current hygienic standards, 21 percent lack either hot or cold running water, 11 percent lack a sewer system, and 20 percent have a shortage of TB drugs."

So do these devastating national weaknesses defang Russia? As Putin tries to claw his way back to superpower status it would be prudent to remember, there is nothing more dangerous than a wounded, cornered bear.