Baring Russia's Bear

This is insightful on many levels, "Russian troops start dismantling Georgia posts." (WaPo)

"The moves come as Russia faced a Friday deadline for pulling back its troops under the terms of a deal brokered by French President Nicolas Sarkozy on behalf of the European Union."

That's right, the United States played no active role in brokering a resolution to this potential time bomb.... Sarkozy and the EU did the heavy lifting while the Bush administration issued largely ignored pronouncements of no usefulness. And the EU is monitoring what so far is Russia's compliance.

This EU-brokered agreement obliges Russia to pull it's military out of what it calls a security zone roughly four-miles deep inside Georgia south of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, although it allows Russia to set up checkpoints in the zones.

"Russia recognized the independence of both regions after the fighting, a move denounced by Georgia and the West; so far, only Nicaragua and the Hamas government in Gaza have followed suit with recognition."

So where are Russia's friends.... China, Venezuela, Iran? Hmmmm. Could it be because a moth-eaten bear.... as evidenced by it's outdated military equipment deployed in it's conflict with Georgia.... isn't yet a Big Bad Bear despite strongman Vladimir Putin's huffing and growling?

Today Murray Feshback explains in "Behind the Bluster, Russia is Collapsing." (WaPo)

"Predictions that Russia will again become powerful, rich and influential ignore some simply devastating problems at home that block any march to power. Sure, Russia's army could take tiny Georgia. But Putin's military is still in tatters, armed with rusting weaponry and staffed with indifferent recruits. Meanwhile, a declining population is robbing the military of a new generation of soldiers. Russia's economy is almost totally dependent on the price of oil. And, worst of all, it's facing a public health crisis that verges on the catastrophic"

As Putin continues to focus the revenues of Russia's oil industry cash-cow on boosting defense spending, (with a plan to fully re-arm it's military to state-of-the-art at a cost of $200 billion) it comes at the expense of Russia's most basic resource.... the health and well-being of it's people.

Three times as many Russians die from heart-related illnesses as do Americans or Europeans per 100,000 people; TB deaths are triple the World Health Organization's definition of an epidemic... about 24,000 in 2007 for 142 million people as compared to 650 in the U.S. with a population of 303 million; diagnosed HIV/AIDS infections are skyrocketing to about 1 million people with an estimated increase of 25 percent more new cases in 2008. The birth rate has been declining for more than a decade and the health of Russia's newborns is quite poor with 70 percent experiencing complications at birth.

Is Russia addressing these tragic and nationally debilitating health issues? No.

For example, "according to Gennady Onishchenko, the country's chief public health physician, only 9 percent of Russian TB hospitals meet current hygienic standards, 21 percent lack either hot or cold running water, 11 percent lack a sewer system, and 20 percent have a shortage of TB drugs."

So do these devastating national weaknesses defang Russia? As Putin tries to claw his way back to superpower status it would be prudent to remember, there is nothing more dangerous than a wounded, cornered bear.

EU Takes a Detour

The European Union still needs a constitution because the countries can't agree on a unifying structure. It's proposed constitution is the across-the-pond version of our Homeland Security Department.... "an unwieldy, bureaucratic entity run by leaders far removed from the European people." (WaPo)

But, if el Presidente Bush has his way he'll barge forward with his own unifying plan, to wed our already unworkable corporista government to the corrupted and dangerous drug-warlord land of Mexico and a Canada with attitude.... the North American Union, his legacy.

In a Rovian move, the EU leaders are making an end run around the constitution concept, and instead are offering a "treaty" to its 27 capitals. Even this treaty was resisted, so some of its symbolism was removed, such as an EU anthem. "My Countries Tis of Thee".... er "Those".... er "Them".... just didn't work.

But, the original intent is still there. The treaty sets out rules for the future enlargement of the EU.

Our el Presidente Bush is taking notes. Expect a North American Treaty in the near future.

Bush: Get Out of the Way!

U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and six other representatives visit Syria.... a trip the White House describes as a bad idea.... but Israel's Acting President Dalia Itzik, who is a member of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's centrist Kadima party, said to her about her visit to Damascus "I believe in your worthy intentions."

A handful of Republican and Democratic lawmakers have already visited Syria and met President Bashar al-Assad in December after the bipartisan Iraq Study Group recommended a stepped-up diplomatic effort involving Syria and Iran to help calm the violence in Iraq. And, three Republican congressmen, Frank Wolf (VA), Joe Pitts (PA) and Robert Aderholt (AL), were in Syria on Sunday where they met with Assad.

Pelosi promised Israel she would raise with Assad the issue of three captive Israeli soldiers, two held by Lebanon's Hezbollah group and one by Palestinian militants. She is also conveying that "Israel is willing to talk if they [Syria] would openly take steps to stop supporting terrorism," Olmer's spokeswoman, Miri Eisin said.

In an hour-long meeting, Olmert and Pelosi's delegation talked "extensively" about a Saudi peace plan, dormant since 2002 and relaunched last week at the Arab League summit by Saudi's King Abdullah. Olmert has welcomed the plan, which calls for the recognition by all Arab states of Israel in exchange for an Israeli withdrawal from territories captured in 1967.

Accompanying Pelosi on her second trip to the Middle East since assuming the speakership in January are Democratic Representatives Keith Ellison (MN), Henry Waxman (CA), Tom Lantos (CA), Louise Slaughter (NY), Nick Rahall (WV) and Republican David Hobson (OH). This trip also includes stops in the Palestinian territories, Lebanon and Saudi Arabia.

Olmert has invited Arab leaders to a regional peace conference for an exchange of views about solving the Mideast conflict.

Meanwhile, German Chancellor Angela Merkel met with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and said the European Union will try to help resolve the conflicts with Israel, stating she believes, "time is of the essence."

Unsubstantiated reports, fueled by Russian intelligence, predict an attack on Iran in early April by U.S. forces.... Operation Bite. These reports are believable mainly because The Decider has proven that he knows only one way to proceed in international affairs, by the use of force.

It's heartening that our lawmakers are aggressively pursuing the recommendations of the Iraq Study Group. As for The Decider.... get out of the way!