Are You My Friend?

As Yogi would say, it feels like "deja vu all over again"..... "Britain Takes Case Against Iran to U.N."

Yes, following the crooked script for disaster in Iraq, the Brits have asked the U.N. Security Council for action. They want them to "deplore" Tehran's seizure and "detention" of 15 Royal Navy sailors and marines, demanding their immediate release.

This declaration of condemnation is being resisted. The dispute is over whether the Brits were operating in Iraqi or Iranian waters.... Russia and others aren't taking the Brits "proof" that they weren't operating in Iranian waters. Iran offers "proof" that they were.

Iran says the whole thing can be resolved if Britain admits it made a "mistake" and crossed into their waters. They also suggest that without such an admission, they might have to take legal action, suggesting they might put the Brit captives on trial.

Meanwhile, the buzz in Russia and much of Europe is that Bush and Blair are primed for confrontation with Iran. Perhaps coincidentally, today our head of national counterintelligence, Joe Brenner, warns that Moscow is intent on gaining insights into "the upper echelon of U. S. decision-making.... back to Cold War levels in their efforts against the United States."

Makes you wonder if Russia isn't on target about the our military buildup on the Iran border since our own counterintelligence is saying Moscow's intelligence is pretty good, a Cold-War level threat.

All of this saber rattling comes at a time when The Decider can count his international supporters on..... well, I was going to say one finger, but Blair is leaving office this July, and his successor may not be so enamored of Bush's enemy-making colonialism. They've been there, done that.

"Wait," you may say. We have other allies, especially the Saudis in the Middle East.

Think again. The Decider wanted to honor his Saudi friends, so he scheduled a mid-April White House gala for King Abdullah. But, Abdullah suddenly cancelled offering an Emily Post "prior commitment" reason.

Just another warning that the politically-weakened Bush's "friends" are distancing themselves. Jim Hoagland's "Bush's Royal Trouble" reports that "Bush and his senior advisers were not convinced" by the vague scheduling excuse, "especially since it followed Saudi decisions to seek common ground with Iran and the radicals of Hezbollah and Hamas instead of confronting them as part of Rice's proposed 'realignment' of the Middle East into moderates and extremes."

Adding insult to injury, Abdullah gave a warm welcome to Iran's President Ahmadinejad in early March. It was just a few months ago that the Saudis were championing the realignment approach.... now the Saudi's national security adviser regularly visits Tehran and Moscow.

Let's face it, Bush and much of his administration are in way over their heads.... dragging the country into incredibly dangerous waters.

Hostage Fuse Burning

The Stage

In November of 1979, following the overthrow of the Shah, the followers of Iran's new leader, Ayatollah Khomeini, overran the U.S. embassy and took 66 hostages, most of whom were held for 444 days, until January 20, 1981.

In June of 2004 British servicemen were held for two days after apparently straying into the Iranian side of Shatt-al Arab, the river that constitutes the border between Iraq and Iran down to the mouth as it discharges into the Persian Gulf.

So, how serious is the current seizure of 15 Royal Navy crew members? Where on the retaliation meter does and should it fall?

The British sailors and marines were taken after being confronted by six small Iranian vessels in the Shatt-al Arab waterway, accused of entering Iranian waters.

England's prime minister Tony Blair lost much of his luster over Iraq and is retiring from office soon. Now his Navy, once the mightiest in the world, appears impotent on the world stage. He must have an eye on his legacy. What to do?

The Military Might

There are reports that the lone female in the fifteen troops being held will be released soon. In the meantime, Britain is freezing all talks with Iran and the U.S. Navy is staging its largest show of force in the Persian Gulf since the 2003 invasion, war games on steroids.

President Bush is facing his biggest challenge ever from Congress over his conduct of the war in Iraq... he needs a convincing argument that in this dangerous region he needs unfettered war powers.

Last Thursday Iran also started exercises in the Gulf which their state television said "showed their defensive power for protecting the Persian Gulf." A show of force in the strategic waterway through which two-fifths of the world's traded oil is shipped.

But Iran is treading in dangerous waters.

The EU, Egypt and the Saudis have expressed their condemnation of Iran's actions. Washington has long been challenging Tehran's resolve to build atomic bombs, and has not ruled out the use of force if there isn't a diplomatic resolution.

A Russian news outlet reported yesterday that their intelligence sees a U.S. military buildup on the Iran border. "The latest military intelligence data point to heightened U.S. military preparations for both an air and ground operation against Iran," although the Pentagon has probably not yet made a final decision as to when an attack will be launched. They also observed that the U.S. Naval presence in the Gulf has for the first time in the past four years reached the Iraq pre-invasion level.

This current military hostage situation impacting our closest ally and potentially much of the world's oil supply is primed to explode the festering tensions with Iran.

The stage is set, the military might is in place, the fuse is burning.....