Independent on Independence Day

Independence Day this year is more than just fireworks and brats on the grill.... it also marks a growing independence in the electorate.

A new, in-depth study by The Washington Post in collaboration with the Kaiser Foundation and Harvard University, finds that a "broad segment of the electorate - about three in 10 voters" call themselves Independents and could well be the power brokers of 2008.

Putting things into perspective usually means 3-D.... in the case of Independents, the study puts them into focus with 5 Ds:

Deliberators... classic swing voters. They may not decide until the curtain closes.

Disillusioned... there must be hordes of these. They think the parties are but two heads of the same dangerous political monster.

Dislocated... no one party fits their social-fiscal outlook. Remember when the GOP was fiscally conservative?

Disguised... wingers on the left and right. So far out on the limb they can no longer see the tree.

Disengaged... "There's going to be an election?"

The voter category that worries me the most is "Disengaged." They are about 25 percent of all independents and are the youngest of any group.... four in ten are younger than 30. It's their future that's the most on the line in 2008.

It's maddening that the political odor emanating from our so-called political leaders distances the very people their actions will most impact.

So, which party or political candidate benefits from the trend toward independence?

Not former House speaker Newt Gingrich. Two-thirds would definitely not vote for him. New York Mayor Bloomberg if he runs as an Independent? Maybe half, while a third said definitely not.

One is left with the impression that there is a great muddle of voters out there milling around and muttering "Who to trust... who to trust."

They are shell-shocked by the deceptions of The Decider and his partner in crime, "Closed-door" Cheney, and their Constitution-gutting, inept cabinet and congressional enablers from both parties.... a host of good-ol'-boy bureaucratic big spenders and bumblers.

Today, Independents are waving the flag, weighing their options and withholding their support.... for now.

Who Likes Mike?

Ed Rollins likes Mike.

This ex-Ross Perot campaigner just can't help himself, he likes mavericks and cheers former NY mayor Bloomberg on in "Come on In, Mike. It Could Be a Wild Ride."

Changing horses from Republican to Independent has worked successfully before, but only at the state level. Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) did it in the last election after the Democratic primary voters threw him out because of his pro-Iraq war, Bush-hugging ways.

So what are Bloomberg's chances? Rollins insightfully reviews and compares other Independent candidate campaigns and decides.... "Bully for Bloomberg."

Bloomberg and Hagel's Kabuki

If money could talk.... well, money is talking.

"New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg is prepared to spend an unprecedented $1 billion of his own $5.5 billion personal fortune for a third-party presidential campaign." (Washington Times)

Bloomberg, a Republican who fashions himself as a social liberal and fiscal conservative, has "lowered the bar" and upped the likelihood for a decision on making a run.

The last serious third-party candidate was H. Ross Perot, the Texas billionaire whose 1992 bid split the vote and helped elect Bill Clinton while tripping-up incumbent George H. W. Bush.

Bloomberg is looking closely at the strategies used by Perot, and meeting with Perot's most senior people.

Meanwhile, Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel teased on CBS's "Face the Nation" on Sunday about a third-party ticket with Bloomberg... "It's a great country to think about a New York boy and a Nebraska boy to be teamed up leading this nation." (WaPo)

Hmmmm.

Hagel, an anti-war conservative, in an unhappy marriage with the GOP, has opined "neither party is seen as an answer."

Such a third-party entry into the fray would drastically upset the Shermanesque march of Sen. Hillary Clinton toward the White House, and peel away many of the still-looking GOP voters disappointed with the drift of their party on the watch of Commander Guy.

Hagel, a social conservative, is not only an effective communicator, but would help to counter-balance the "nanny state" label pinned on Bloomberg because of his social policies.

Bloomberg is downplaying a possible double-billing with Hagel. But, it is seeming more and more likely that the real reason for the strange news conference Hagel held two months ago to declare his presidential bid intentions... he announced that he had nothing to announce.... may have had something to do with a rethinking of his options to include the possibility of hitching his wagon to "Brinks" Bloomberg.

What the consequences might be..... well, candidate spinners could use this pithy line intoned by former Vice President Dan Quayle..... "We are ready for any unforeseen event that may or may not occur."