Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Polls... Reflecting or Affecting?

Here's the problem with, "For Democrats, Iowa Still Up for Grabs" based on a recent Washington Post/ABC News Poll calling it close for the three top contenders, Barack Obama (30%), Hillary Clinton (26%), and John Edwards (22%)..... only 500 likely caucus voters were polled, and no one owning just a cell phone was polled, i.e., a large group of voters under 40 were ignored!

In a word.... can one trust these polls?

Will cell-phoners support Clinton or Obama? Seems like that edge would go to the younger Obama supporters.

Is illegal immigration the third-rail this election, or of little importance as the liberal-sponsored poll suggests. Many reports say it's a wedge issue, at least in Iowa. Just ask Obama who was skewered on this issue at a recent campaign stop. Or, any candidate taking unscripted questions from Iowans railing against illegal immigration.... emphasis on "illegal."

Is 4th place Bill Richardson actually polling better than Joe Biden? Especially on Iraq, an issue on which even the other candidates defer to Biden who shows up in 5th place.... and, especially since Iraq is the number one issue with the voters, according to the "polls." Doesn't add up.

It's an old trick, using polls to try to shape public opinion.... no use supporting such and such a candidate, he doesn't have a chance.... no one thinks such and such an issue matters, no use deciding based on that issue. Mind games.

Even naming the top three candidates the year before the caucuses.... who decided that? Big media, big money... and "polls."

Forget the polls. Forget front runner and second tier slotting. Support the best candidate for the job.... the one whose values and policies best reflect you. Otherwise, the pollsters and kingmakers decide.

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