Thursday, March 02, 2006

Oilman Bush+Petroeuro=Iran War

About seventy percent of the world's international foreign currency reserves are held in U.S. dollars. Iran is seriously considering establishing an Iranian Oil Bourse in competition with the U.S. owned New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and London's International Petroleum Exchange (IPE).

There are three oil markers that establish price, the West Texas Intermediate crude, Norway Brent crude and the UAE Dubai crude. Iran would thus be establishing a fourth oil marker, and this marker would be priced in the euro. If Iran persists in creating this bourse in euros, the "petroeuro" would undercut the "petrodollar" and drastically diminish the dominance of the dollar in the international foreign currency reserves.

This is important because the U.S. depends on the dollar foreign-currency reserves to sustain budget deficits through the sale of the Treasury debt. If the dollar in foreign-exchange portfolios from oil sales fell it would create a crisis in the American economy.

The dollar since the administration of Richard Nixon is no longer backed in gold. The Islamic world recognizes this "floating dollar" weakness. So besides the threat of the petroeuro, many in the Muslim world want to establish the gold dinar as the currency in which to conduct international oil transactions. Malaysia issued their gold dinar in 2002.

The U.S. needs to strengthen its international trade dollar to preserve its value and stability in the international oil market. To not do so risks a drop in international petrodollar holdings that would thus shred U.S. social programs like Social Security.

So President Bush was left with choices. Rein in our national debt, dependence on oil and strengthen the dollar and thus our social net. Or, go to war with countries threatening the petrodollar (like Iraq who was trading oil in euros with UN approval) and dismantle the social net.

Bush chose war and dismantling.

The Iranian Oil Bourse is supposed to open in March. Israel is having elections in March. Israel has set a March deadline for resolution of Iran's nuclear threat. The Bush administration is making a March port agreement with the United Arab Emirates thus establishing a vital national interest with a nation in Iran's backyard.

Seems like the perfect March storm is gathering.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

For more on the Iranian Bourse and the Petroeuro, see:

http://www.movermike.com/posts/1136059355.shtml

john 14:6 said...

I saw that you posted on my blog. Thanks

David,
Maranatha!